Newsletter – June 2024

All the information in this letter is NOT to be considered financial advice; it is the author’s personal views and agreed views of others from their overviews of present markets,

Some of the content will be a summary of articles I have read and believe the author got most or all of it bang on, some will be statistics that have been check for validity, but all will be content I believe is of use or interest to margincall.club members.

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Welcome to the June 2024 edition of the margincall.club FinTech Newsletter.

I will provide you with an overview of key financial events and market developments from the past month (May) and what effect those events could have in June and beyond, as always the goal is to help you stay informed and to make your own well-informed decisions.

I will also visit any of the price predictions given in the May 2024 letter to see what played out and what didn’t and why.

Financial Market Highlights:

1. Stock Market:

All three major U.S. stock indexes turned high in May as of the 25th, removing some losses, even after the Fed released its minutes showing officials were disappointed in recent inflation data and believed “disinflation would likely take longer than previously thought.”

The Nasdaq Composite is up 8.38% on the 25^th May and looks like it could hit 9%.

The S&P 500 is up 5.08%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1.5% to notch a 5% decline in April, its worst month since September 2022.

Treasury yields continued to move up unabated.

2. Economic Indicators:

I repeat and I soumd like a stuck record, beware the hawks of war! The strike’s by Israel in Gaza escalated in June, this brought condemnation!

Iran continue to fund the conflict, do not underestimate that act.

Warfare is about to change in a seismic way and it will affect the arms industry and its value, Iran has brought a slingshot to fight the giant with a sword!

• Cryptocurrency Update:

Eth got it’s ETF as I said it would, what Larry wants Larry gets, but what really forced the SEC hand was Trumps declaration of support for crypto and a crypto army.

Bitcoin is back up to the >$70< mark, my believe that the pre-halving ATH was the first signs of supply shock still holds and it is starting to play out, again it remains to be seen if that belief is founded.

In the April letter my May 2024, 3 fiscal quarters view was:

On Monday November 15th 2021 (one year after the prior halving and one month after the all time high) in the 3 day Bitcoin chart we reached the top of a head and shoulders pattern, that second shoulder played out on Monday April 4^th 2022

At which point Bitcoin dropped to a low of >$15.5k< playing out the head and shoulder indicated drop nearly to the dollar by Wednesday November 9^th 2022, 12 months after the high.

Since that bottom Bitcoins rise has been upward with consolidations, no real pull backs until the handle to the cup started to form at the end of March, which is where I got my pull back to >60K<, in my view that would confirm the cup, and that the handle is forming.

I published a video of the 3 day chart and my beliefs in market direction on “X” on May 4^th with the figures I believe Bitcoin will achieve by ends of year.

A video of the chart view is here https://screenrec.com/share/FWHsBr2unf and published on “X” May 4^th.

This view has not changed, in fact it has only got stronger.

4. Commodities and Forex:

I don’t provide updates in this letter on commodities like oil, gold, and Fiat currencies as these are assets that are affected by market trends and all the above.

Investment Insights:

1. Market Analysis:

I stand by what I said before as this is a macro view regarding El Salvador, Argentina on the other hand seems to be falling to pressure from the IMF, as I said last month there is news that the new Argentinian President is going back on his word, that’s not good.

The draught law in the EU banning all self-custody wallets seems to have spread to the US, but I do believe that would be challenged in the European and US courts under constitution and EU right’s laws!  

The developments in fiscal digital transfer service in the African sub-continent seem to be gathering momentum.

With growing support by a number of Governments in the African sub-continent, expect any service looking to promote these services will do well till year end.           

2. Investment Strategies & Featured Asset:

Nothing has changed here from last month, my Macro view is you want to have a foot in both traditional and crypto markets and you have to look at data miners and companies like Micro strategy.

The miners can switch to data storage and Micro Strategy will most probably capitalise some Bitcoin to cover costs of purchase if BTC goes >4X as that would be prudent to reduce debt, much the same as a stock buy back.

If you see any ATM company looking to use those machines when idle to mine Bitcoin or a company that is using renewables, solar, water and wind to power miners all would be worth doing Due diligence to see if they are investable.

Plus any deals you hear about between Ai and data storage companies would be worth due diligence time.

The only thing I would add to that is buy some tradeable bullion, gold or silver coins.         

Financial News:

1. Global Financial News:

Events in Ukraine, Gaza and Iran continue to escalate which could see a chain reaction in events, that would move US markets down as stated before.

1. Interest Rate Rises have to start to reduce soon – with more Still to Come from countries outside the US.

   I still hold that June, maybe now July will see a rate cut, should be small at first. Watch the numbers on this, if it’s below 0.25 they don’t feel in control, if its 0.25 or above they feel in control. (the fed state what data they use, google it to educate yourselves).

As last month

2. Food Prices will rise in 2024 and 2025 more than inflation.

   – Global food prices are expected to stay elevated in 2024 due to factors like drought, excessive rain, the war in Ukraine, and Gaza plus high energy costs impacting global farm production.

   – The politicians have run out of smoke and the mirrors are broken, western countries that have only experienced single figure inflation are now experiencing inflation in the >20%< range on consumer edible’s.

People are seeing those price increases and shrinkflation (the producer’s art of reducing the amount in a packet and still making look the same!)  the only way to reduce those increases is less tax on the costs of transport and in the supply chain, which means reduction in tax income which in turn means more cow bell!

I would add to this that companies will exploit “Shrinkflation” in products, less product same price strategies!

2. Regulatory Updates:

As I said earlier in the letter Larry got what he wanted, and helped by Trump!

Said this last three months and stand by it now after Bitcoins friend Larry Fink said he wants the ETH ETF, he wants that ETH ETF so he can offer zero fee’s ETF’s as he will offer staking and promote ETH as the tool to tokenise traditional finance! 

News on ETH ETF’s expected this month, Gary is going to have a hard time explaining why he allowed other ETH products in the past and not a spot ETF to a judge.

Personal thoughts:

This is not advice of any kind, just a view I have, if you can find a company to cover this bet let me know as I want to place this play bet, and it is a bet:

1. Joe Biden will announce he will not stand for a second term.
2. Kamila Harris (the now US VP) will be sworn in as the first US woman president.
3. Gavin Newsom will be the democratic party nominee.

Individual odds and the accumulator.

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Thank you for trusting us with your information. We look forward to providing you with valuable insights in the coming month.

Regards to all and have a safe and happy New Year, leave your thoughts and views on X  @margincall10 .

James,

Margincall.club