All the information in this letter is not to be considered financial advice; it is the author’s personal views and agreed views of others from their overviews of present markets,
Some of the content will be a summary of articles I have read and believe the author got most or all of it bang on, some will be statistics that have been check for validity, but all will be content I believe is of use or interest to margincall.club members.
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Welcome to the January 2024 edition of the margincall.club FinTech Newsletter.
This month, we will provide you with an overview of key financial events and market developments from the past month (December) and what effect those events could have in January, Our goal is to help you stay informed and to make your own well-informed decisions.
I will also visit any of the price predictions given in the December 2023 letter to see what played out and what didn’t and why.
We are coming into January, historically a time when investors are looking at tax liabilities.
Financial Market Highlights:
- Stock Market:
There is some reporting of scepticism in markets of reported government figures across the board which is looking like it is causing some jitters, this could lead to a 2 to 3% fall in the traditional markets in the first week.
- Economic Indicators:
Below is a paragraph from December 2023 letter, the feeling that data is fiction is growing stronger!
“Nothing has really changed since last month apart from the bank liquidity and more made up data from major governments. There must come a time the mainstream media gets a trusted third party to check the figures given!”
- Cryptocurrency Update:
I was of the mind that Bitcoin would get very close to >$48k< around the New Year and it got to £46.2K, but I didn’t expect or have reason to see the glut of miss reporting of whale action, Ark invest being the largest miss reporting, Wood never sold a Bitcoin, it was just portfolio management.
Then the amount of high leverage long’s, be very aware of social media and online press services reporting opinion not facts!
I am still bullish on Bitcoin regardless of ETF outcomes, I stand by the $48k price by the end of January even if Uncle Gary puts off the ETF’s, if one or all the ETF’s are given the go ahead then 50K will come fast and the end of January could see a new all-time high for Bitcoin.
- Commodities and Forex:
I don’t provide updates in this letter on commodities like oil, gold, and Fiat currencies as these are assets that are affected by market trends and all the above.
Investment Insights:
- Market Analysis:
Keep one eye on El Salvador and Argentina in the approach to giving more credence to Bitcoin in the day to day use in both countries.
Also fiscal digital transfer service in the African sub-continent will be a deal this year, expect any service looking to promote these services will do well over the next 12 months.
- Investment Strategies & Featured Asset:
Nothing has changed here from last month, my Macro view is you want to have a foot in both traditional and crypto markets and you have to look at data miners and companies like Micro strategy, the miners can switch to data storage and Micro Strategy will most probably capitalise some Bitcoin to cover costs of purchase if BTC goes >4X as that would be prudent.
If you see any ATM company looking to use those machines when idle to mine Bitcoin or a company that is using renewables, solar, water and wind to power miners all would be worth doing Due diligence to see if they are investable.
Plus any deals you hear about between Ai and data storage companies would be worth due diligence time.
Financial News:
- Global Financial News:
I would refer you to last month’s letter here, we have had other parties joining the war in the red sea, so we are going to see the US and other markets suffer that rely on that supply chain route.
These actions will only see pressure on interest rates across US, Euro and the UK which could see the stock market rise against the predicted down trend, that could lead to a catastrophic share fall next month that would lead to the cascade collapse of market positions,
Covered most of the news that could have impact market movement, that remains around the events in Ukraine, Gaza and Iran, escalation there could see a chain reaction in events and that moving US markets down.
If I had a tinfoil hat I would link the latest news to the $5m Nvidia trade Nancy Polosi took at the beginning of December, woman must have the biggest crystal ball in the world!
1. **Interest Rate Rises Slow Down – But More Still to Come:**
Expect a dovish presentation from the feed two months before they start to drop interest rates. Watch the numbers on this, the fed state what data they use google it to educate yourselfs.
2. **Food Prices will rise in 2024 more than inflation:**
– Global food prices are expected to stay elevated in 2024 due to factors like drought, excessive rain, the war in Ukraine, and Gaza plus high energy costs impacting global farm production.
– The politicians have run out of smoke and the mirrors are broken, western countries that have only experienced single figure inflation are now experiencing inflation in the >20%< range on consumer edible’s, people are seeing those price increases and shrinkflation (the producers art of reducing the amount in a packet and still making look the same!) the only way to reduce that is less tax on the costs of transport and in the supply chain, which means reduction in tax income which inturn means more cow bell!
- Regulatory Updates:
News on ETF’s expected in 10 days (maybe January5th as the ruling says “By January 8th”)
Personal thoughts:
Markets are now in danger of being pumped and then a cascade crash in both traditional and Crypto .
If the Bitcoin ETF’s get sanctioned by Gary on the 5th Jan then Bitcoin could hit $60K+ by the end of the month and that will drag Eth with it, the 0.06 Bitcoin value of Eth didn’t show its face, that doesn’t mean that is not coming, never forget Eth has it its time been over 0.15BTC per ETH, I would not be surprised to see Eth at 0.25BTC before the end of 2025.
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Regards to all and have a safe and happy New Year, leave your thoughts and views on X @margincall10 .
James,
