November FinTech Letter - MarginCall Club

MarginCall.club FinTech Newsletter – December 2023

All the information in this letter is not to be considered financial advice; it is the author’s personal views and agreed views of others from their overviews of present markets,

Some of the content will be a summary of articles I have read and believe the author got most or all of it bang on, some will be statistics that have been check for validity, but all will be content I believe is of use or interest to margincall.club members.

Season’s greetings and Hello to all Club members, and for the moment anyone else that comes to the site because the members access only side is yet to be set up

Access will come free with full club membership when you use one of or partner exchanges to trade.

Welcome to the December edition of the margincall.club FinTech Newsletter.

This month, we will provide you with an overview of key financial events and market developments from the past month (November) and what effect those events could have in November, Our goal is to help you stay informed and to make your own well-informed decisions.

I will also visit any of the price predictions given in the November 2023 letter to see what played out and what didn’t and why.

As I write this the news that Charlie Munger passed away at 99 years of age, may he rest in peace and his family find some peace in the fact they had him around for so long, something many in the world at the moment don’t get a chance of, all I have to say to that is, an eye for an eye only leads to the blind leading the blind!

From the feedback on last month’s newsletter the consensus seems to be more condensed and more direct links.

We are coming into December and holiday season, historically a quiet time in most markets, doesn’t mean it will be this month but I only see a few things that could be an issue, so this month will be shorter than last months.

Financial Market Highlights:

Stock Market:
Healthcare firms drag
STOXX 600 set for best month since Jan
Argenx tumbles after failed Vyvgart trial
STOXX 600 down 0.3%

On November 28th, European stock markets experienced a second consecutive decline, interrupting the positive momentum seen throughout November. This downturn was triggered by statements from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers that tempered expectations of interest rate cuts in the coming year.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) saw a 0.3% decrease, impacted by notable declines in heavyweight stocks like Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO) and LVMH (LVMH.PA), which fell by 3.1% and 1.8%, respectively.

The healthcare sector (.SXDP) faced a 1.4% drop, with Belgian pharmaceutical firm Argenx(ARGX.BR) experiencing a significant decline of 10.1% after its advanced study on a treatment for a bleeding disorder failed to meet primary and secondary endpoints.

Despite this setback, the STOXX 600 index remained on track for its most robust monthly performance since January, driven by the anticipation that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the ECB, might shift towards easing monetary policy in the coming year.

Joachim Nagel, the chief of the Bundesbank, cautioned that the ECB might need to raise interest rates again if the inflation outlook worsened, advising against hasty policy easing following a series of record-setting rate hikes. ECB President Christine Lagarde echoed this sentiment on Monday, emphasizing that the bank’s efforts to control inflation were ongoing.

Susannah Streeter, Head of Money and Markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, noted that speeches from central bank policymakers were aimed at tempering enthusiasm for imminent rate cuts. She anticipated a similar stance from Jerome Powell, Chair of the Fed, in his upcoming speech on Friday.

Investors were closely monitoring economic data, including euro zone inflation numbers and the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures index, for insights into the future path of monetary policy. Market sentiment shifted, with traders now pricing in a 45% chance of a 25 basis points rate cut by the ECB in April, down from approximately 90% two weeks prior.

In other market movements, German consumer sentiment showed a slight improvement heading into the Christmas month, but concerns remained about a sustainable recovery in Europe’s largest economy. Julius Baer (BAER.S) faced a 4.7% decline as Morgan Stanley downgraded the Swiss bank, citing concerns about the quality of some of its assets.

French video game producer Ubisoft (UBIP.PA) witnessed a 9.0% drop after announcing a placement of convertible or exchangeable bonds into shares. On a more positive note, RWE (RWEG.DE), Germany’s largest power producer, stated its intention to increase investments in green energy technologies to 55 billion euros ($60 billion) over the next seven years, leading to a 3.1% rise in its shares.

Economic Indicators:

Nothing has really changed since last month apart from the bank liquidity and more made up data from major governments. There must come a time the mainstream media gets a trusted third party to check the figures given!

Cryptocurrency Update:

I agree with about 80% of what Daria Morgen wrote today here https://changelly.com/blog/bitcoin-price-prediction/ on changelly, a good blog to follow. I think her Bitcoin Prediction table is way off as I believe the data it’s based on is missing key information, though I am happy to be corrected, I think it is optimistic in its price stability and too pessimistic in its maximum price declarations.

The Min/max spread shows no respect for historic volatility compression and I feel fails to take into account the effect of Metcalfe’s law on adoption within the narrative of social media awareness, something we have only seen with the adoption of chat GPT.

Commodities and Forex:

I don’t provide updates in this letter on commodities like oil, gold, and Fiat currencies as these are assets that are affected by market trends and all the above.

Investment Insights:

Market Analysis:

As I said last month about Black Rock and fidelity have already set up there Bitcoin and Eth profits, and how they are eyeing 8 to 16 X on what they have.

During last month I looked on the block for >1< bitcoin purchases heading for 100+ bitcoin wallets, and worked out what Blackrock would need to buy $7.1Billion of Bitcoin which is 1% of their liquid assets.

Blockchain analysts reported that the bitcoin transfers to one address were coming from Gemini and noted that the first major transaction occurred exactly one month after BlackRock filed for its spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), fuelling speculation that the investment manager is behind this rapid accumulation in the wallet.

The amount accumulated in those identified wallets totals 118,000 BTC, leaving around $4.3billion Bitcoin to find to represent 1% of Blackrocks $7.1Billion liquid assets (they will sell those Bitcoin to ETF investors to replenish the $7.1B and pocket the profits, and Larry could be the first CEO to walk away with a $1B bonus!), I wonder where Blackrock would find $4.3 billion of Bitcoin!

Investment Strategies & Featured Asset:

If you are looking at the Macro and want to have a foot in both traditional and crypto markets you have to look at data miners and companies like Micro strategy, the miners can switch to data storage and Micro Strategy will most probably capitalise some Bitcoin to cover costs of purchase if BTC goes >4X as that would be prudent.

If you see any ATM company looking to use those machines when idle to mine Bitcoin or a company that is using renewables, solar, water and wind to power miners all would be worth doing Due diligence to see if they are investable.

Financial News:

Global Financial News:

Covered most of the news that could have impact market movement, that remains around the events in Ukraine, Gaza and Iran, escalation there could see a chain reaction in events and that moving US markets down.

1. **Interest Rate Rises Slow Down – But More Still to Come:**

– The US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of England have recently slowed the pace of their interest rate hikes but indicated that the tightening cycle is ongoing.

– The Fed raised rates by 0.5% in December and plans to continue raising them, projecting a rate of 5.1% by the end of the next year.

– The ECB raised rates by 50 basis points in December and foresees further increases due to an upward revision in the inflation outlook for the Eurozone.

– The Bank of England increased its key interest rate to 3.5% and signaled the potential for additional hikes to counter inflationary pressures.

2. **Food Prices Likely to Remain High in 2023:**

– Global food prices are expected to stay elevated in 2023 due to factors like drought, excessive rain, the war in Ukraine, and high energy costs impacting global farm production.

– Staple crops like rice and wheat may not replenish depleted inventories in the first half of 2023, and adverse weather in Latin America and Southeast Asia affects edible oil production.

– Despite drops in futures for wheat, corn, and palm oil, retail market prices remain high.

3. **FAO Food Commodity Price Indices. Economic News:**

– Recent natural disasters, such as flooding in Australia and drought in Argentina, are anticipated to reduce global wheat availability in early 2023.

– Rice prices may remain high due to export duties imposed by India, and concerns arise about corn and soybeans in South America due to recent dryness.

– The US faces tight supplies of key crops, with global food import costs projected to reach nearly $2 trillion this year.

4. **Rates and Inflation. Economic:**

– While the US shows signs of slowing inflation, producer prices rose more than expected in November, with a moderation trend.

– Japan’s wholesale prices rose by 9.3%, indicating a potential peak in inflation amid easing global commodity prices.

– German households are becoming less pessimistic about inflation, and British inflation fell more than expected in November.

– The UK government is accelerating a consultation on a central bank digital currency, and investors are withdrawing record levels of bitcoin from crypto exchanges.

– Russia is expected to post a record high current account surplus, while Argentina’s inflation is forecasted to cool slightly in November.

– Russia’s central bank held its key interest rate but acknowledged growing inflation risks.

– South Korea expects a deeper economic slowdown, extending sales tax breaks, and exploring the future of cryptocurrencies.

Regulatory Updates:

Still no hard news on ETF’s, CZ’s deal brings Binance .

Personal thoughts:

Everything stays the same in the markets, Bitcoin could hit $48K by 31^st of this month and Eth cracks a stable 0.06 Bitcoin vale, so $2,880.

However, if Gary turns into Santa and drops a surprise day before the holiday and gives the green light to all ETF’s so the fiat outflow to the ETF’s is somewhat restricted then we could see a $50k plus Bitcoin and maybe Eth hitting 0.1Bitcoin and $5k, but that’s only my wild thoughts!

To join the margincall.club click here and join one of our partner exchanges and get all the indicators shown on that page and more.

To Connect on “X”:

Don’t miss out on our future newsletters and the club website updates. Subscribe today and follow us on “X” @margincall10 .

Thank you for trusting us with your information. We look forward to providing you with valuable insights in the coming month.

Regards and seasons greetings to all and have a safe and happy New Year, leave your thoughts and views on X @margincall10 .

James,

Margincall.club

MarginCall.club FinTech Newsletter – November 2023

Any of the information in this letter is not to be considered financial advice; it is the author’s personal views and agreed views of others from their overviews of October’s market and November coming.

Hello Club members,(and for the moment anyone else that comes to the site because the members access only side is yet to be set up, access will come free with full club membership, which itself is free when you use one of our partner exchanges to trade),

Welcome to the November edition of the MarginCall.Club FinTech Newsletter.

This month, we will provide you with an overview of key financial events and market developments from the past month (October and for this month only September as this is the first Letter post, so this will be a long letter), and what effect those events could have in November, Our goal is to help you stay informed and to make your own well-informed decisions.

Financial Market Highlights:

Stock Market:

Up until October 23rd, 2023, the stock market displayed mixed performance, with the Dow and S&P 500 closing lower, partly due to the 10-year Treasury yield briefly exceeding 5%. The benchmark yield surged to 5.02% in early trading, reflecting investor concerns about prolonged elevated interest rates before retreating. This was the first time the 10-year yield had reached this level since 2007.

The recent rise in yields was influenced by remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who indicated no evidence of excessively tight monetary policy, causing concerns that interest rate cuts may be postponed.

Earnings season was underway, but this day saw limited results. Big tech companies like Microsoft and Alphabet were set to report earnings on Tuesday. According to Fact Set, 73% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings had exceeded expectations, slightly below the five-year average of 77% for the same period.

Market performance on Monday included a 0.3% gain in the Nasdaq Composite, while the Dow and S&P 500 experienced losses, with the latter declining for the fifth consecutive session. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.836%, falling for the second consecutive session but still among its top five highest settlements of the year.

Chevron announced its intention to acquire Hess for $53 billion, reflecting ongoing consolidation in the oil industry. U.S. crude oil prices dropped by nearly 3%, leading to declines in energy stocks. Apple rebounded from early losses to finish higher, and Foxconn, one of its major suppliers, cooperated with Chinese authorities following investigations reported by state media.

Moderna faced a ninth consecutive day of declining stock prices due to decreasing demand for COVID-19 booster shots. Morgan Stanley’s stock fell, reaching its lowest closing price since February 2021.

In September 2023, 24% of trading businesses reported a decrease in turnover compared to the previous month, while 14% reported an increase. Looking ahead to November 2023, 56% expected their turnover to remain the same, and 17% anticipated an increase. In September, 27% reported increased prices for goods or services bought, and 10% reported increased prices for goods or services sold. Over half (52%) of trading businesses did not plan to raise prices in November, with 22% attributing potential price increases to energy costs.

Additionally, 17% of trading businesses reported improved performance in September 2023 compared to the same month in the previous year. In early October, 25% of trading businesses expected their overall performance to increase over the next 12 months, marking a 3% increase from the previous month.

The data is based on Wave 93 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) conducted from October 2 to October 15, 2023. It’s important to note that the reported data is subject to uncertainty, including sampling variability and non-sampling error. The survey captures businesses’ views on various aspects of their financial performance, workforce, prices, trade, and business resilience.

Economic Indicators:

In October 2023, the global economic landscape continues to grapple with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and the disruptive impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Unfortunately, the recovery remains sluggish and uneven, prompting concern and caution among experts and policymakers. While there have been glimpses of economic resilience earlier in the year, including a post-lockdown rebound and efforts to curb inflation, it is premature to assume that the worst is behind us. Many economic indicators suggest that we have yet to reach the pre-pandemic levels of economic activity. This gap is particularly pronounced in emerging market and developing economies, exacerbating disparities between different regions.

Several key factors are identified as impediments to the global economic recovery. Some of these factors are long-term consequences of the pandemic, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and the increasing trend of geo-economics fragmentation. Others are more cyclical in nature, such as the impacts of monetary policy adjustments designed to combat inflation, the withdrawal of fiscal support, and the disruptions caused by extreme weather events.

The forecasts for global economic growth paint a rather sobering picture. Global growth is expected to slow from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in 2023 and further to 2.9 percent in 2024. These projections fall below the historical average growth rate observed from 2000 to 2019, which stood at 3.8 percent. Advanced economies are not exempt from this downward trend, with expected growth rates dropping from 2.6 percent in 2022 to 1.5 percent in 2023 and 1.4 percent in 2024. This is influenced by the surprisingly robust economic performance in the United States, contrasted with weaker growth in the euro area. Meanwhile, emerging market and developing economies are projected to experience modest declines in growth, dropping from 4.1 percent in 2022 to 4.0 percent in both 2023 and 2024, with the property sector crisis in China contributing to a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point in 2024.

The spectre of inflation looms large in this economic landscape. While global inflation is expected to gradually decrease, moving from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 6.9 percent in 2023 and further down to 5.8 percent in 2024, the outlook for 2023 and 2024 has been revised upwards by 0.1 and 0.6 percentage points, respectively. This suggests that inflation is unlikely to return to target levels until 2025 in most cases.

Despite these challenges, some risk factors have become more balanced compared to six months ago. The resolution of US debt ceiling tensions and decisive actions taken by Swiss and US authorities to manage financial turbulence have diminished the likelihood of a hard landing. Nevertheless, the overall balance of risks to global growth remains tilted towards the downside. There are potential flashpoints, such as the deepening of China’s property sector crisis, which could have global repercussions, especially for commodity exporters. Additionally, there is a concern about rising near-term inflation expectations, which, combined with tight labour markets, could sustain core inflation pressures, necessitating higher policy rates than initially expected. Furthermore, the ever-present threat of climate and geopolitical shocks could lead to spikes in food and energy prices. Geo-economics’ fragmentation could also disrupt the flow of commodities across markets, increasing price volatility and complicating the transition to a greener economy. Rising debt-service costs have left over half of low-income developing countries at high risk of debt distress.

Given the precarious nature of the global economic outlook, there is little margin for policy error. Central banks are called upon to restore price stability while using policy tools to address financial stress when necessary. Effective monetary policy frameworks and communication are vital for managing expectations and minimizing the costs associated with disinflation. Fiscal policymakers should aim to create fiscal manoeuvring room by phasing out untargeted measures while safeguarding vulnerable populations. Structural reforms, including those that promote labour market participation and reduce obstacles to growth, can help smooth the path to target inflation and facilitate debt reduction.

Multilateral coordination is essential for debt resolution and for addressing the multifaceted challenges of climate change. This includes ensuring the steady flow of necessary minerals across borders.

In summary, the global economic recovery is marred by uncertainty and challenges. Policymakers are urged to tread carefully, using a cooperative approach to mitigate the impact of these issues and promote economic stability and growth. While the road ahead is fraught with obstacles, it is not insurmountable with the right measures and concerted global effort.

Explanation of the impact of these indicators on the financial markets:

Above is an executive summary to a global recovery document published by the IMF for October 2023 on world economic outlook, I have little to say about the language used in the report or what is above, other than quote George Orwell from his book 1984.

“By 2050, earlier, probably – all real knowledge of Old speak will have disappeared. The whole literature of the past will have been destroyed. Chaucer, Shakespeare, Milton, Byron – they’ll exist only in Newspeak versions, not merely changed into something different, but actually changed into something contradictory of what they used to be. Even the literature of the Party will change. Even the slogans will change. How could you have a slogan like ‘freedom is slavery’ when the concept of freedom has been abolished? The whole climate of thought will be different. In fact there will be no thought, as we understand it now. Orthodoxy means not thinking – not needing to think. Orthodoxy is unconsciousness.”

The IMF, Central Banks and Governments understand there is a reckoning coming, will it be in November, a little early to call yet, but that could change very quickly, It’s the Blackrock’s and Fidelities of this world that understand the enormity of what is about to hit the markets, the rush (by their standards) to embrace the Bitcoin and ETH ETF tells me the penny dropped around the $17K Bitcoin price and their agents have been quietly buying since, I say agents because they could not of been seen to be buying then!

Cryptocurrency Update: (First a review of September as this is the first MarginCall.club FinTech newsletter)

The crypto market experienced a cooling-off period in September, historically one of the worst months of the year for Bitcoin (BTC) and other major cryptocurrencies.

Several factors contributed to this downturn, including hints from the Federal Reserve about impending interest rate hikes and the possibility of prolonged higher interest rates.

Additionally, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) once again postponed decisions regarding the approval of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), despite calls from Congress to approve them.

In September, Bitcoin’s price remained relatively stagnant, fluctuating between $25,000 and $27,000, eventually closing the month at $27,155, marking a 5.1% monthly increase. Ethereum (ETH) also saw a 3.0% price increase to reach $1,684. Among the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, Solana (SOL) was the best performer in September, gaining 18.9%, while Dogecoin (DOGE) experienced a 1.5% loss, making it the worst performer.

Despite the lackluster performance in September, crypto prices have shown resilience in 2023, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both posting significant year-to-date gains of 63.3% and 40.2%, respectively. However, the crypto market faced a setback when the SEC delayed decisions on multiple Bitcoin spot ETF proposals until January 2024, further postponing the introduction of these investment products.

The SEC has previously approved cryptocurrency futures ETFs but has repeatedly rejected Bitcoin spot ETFs, citing concerns about investor safety and market manipulation.

In response to these delays, members of Congress urged the SEC to approve Bitcoin spot ETFs, emphasizing the need for regulatory clarity. The potential approval of such ETFs is seen as a catalyst for attracting a new wave of investors into the crypto market, particularly institutional investors who are increasingly recognizing Bitcoin’s potential as a store of value and portfolio diversifier.

Additionally, concerns have emerged regarding the world’s largest crypto exchange, Binance. The company has faced increased regulatory scrutiny, with the SEC charging Binance and its co-founder with illegal operations in the U.S. and mishandling of customer funds. The Department of Justice is reportedly investigating Binance and could bring criminal charges. Binance has laid off over 1,500 employees in recent months, and its future remains uncertain, which has raised concerns about potential liquidity issues in the crypto market.

In other crypto-related news, the SEC continued its efforts to appeal a court ruling that classified Ripple’s XRP as not being a security when sold to retail investors on an exchange. House Republicans introduced a bill aimed at preventing the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC), citing concerns about privacy and surveillance.

JPMorgan’s U.K. digital bank Chase UK announced a ban on crypto transactions via debit card or outgoing bank transfer to protect customers from fraud. In Turkey, the founder of the collapsed cryptocurrency exchange Thodex was sentenced to over 11,000 years in prison for fraud and money laundering.

In summary, the crypto market experienced a subdued September, with concerns about regulatory clarity, the delayed introduction of Bitcoin spot ETFs, and the uncertain future of Binance dominating the landscape. These factors, along with ongoing legal battles and regulatory actions, continue to shape the crypto market’s trajectory in 2023. Investors are advised to exercise caution and consult financial advisors before making decisions regarding cryptocurrency investments due to the asset class’s high volatility and regulatory uncertainties.

October has brought, the trial of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried, and it is expected to generate negative headlines about the crypto industry.

Regulatory developments, especially regarding Bitcoin ETF approvals, will remain a central focus for the crypto community.

Additionally, Binance’s international situation and its potential impact on the market will be closely monitored.

Finally, comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the U.S. Labor Department’s September jobs report release could introduce further volatility to the crypto market.

In October 2023, the crypto market has experienced a period of consolidation and uncertainty, with several key factors influencing its direction.

Major Cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), faced downward pressure in recent weeks due to indications from the Federal Reserve of a potential interest rate hike by year-end and the possibility of prolonged higher interest rates, but even with that pressure the end of the month has seen some spectacular moves up on ETF FUD, then down and then back up on what would seem no news!

Additionally, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) further delayed decisions on the approval of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), despite calls from Congress to expedite the approval process.

Bitcoin’s price exhibited a relatively narrow trading range throughout September, fluctuating between $25,000 and $27,000, ultimately closing the month at $27,155, representing a 5.1% monthly increase. Ethereum (ETH) also recorded a 3.0% price increase in September, closing the month at $1,684. Solana (SOL) emerged as the top performer among the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, gaining 18.9%, while Dogecoin (DOGE) experienced a 1.5% loss, making it the worst-performing cryptocurrency in the same period.

Despite the subdued performance in September, the overall trend for cryptocurrencies in 2023 remained positive. Bitcoin and Ethereum both posted significant year-to-date gains of 63.3% and 40.2%, respectively. However, the crypto market faced a setback when the SEC once again delayed decisions on various Bitcoin spot ETF proposals, pushing the expected approval date to January 2024. The SEC’s reluctance to approve such ETFs is attributed to concerns related to investor protection, market manipulation, and fraud.

In response to these delays, members of Congress sent a letter to the SEC, urging the regulatory body to promptly approve Bitcoin spot ETFs and provide much-needed regulatory clarity to the market. The potential approval of these ETFs is seen as a crucial catalyst for attracting a new wave of investors, particularly institutional players who increasingly view Bitcoin as a store of value and a portfolio diversification tool.

Furthermore, concerns emerged regarding Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, as it faced escalating regulatory scrutiny. The SEC charged Binance and its co-founder with illegal operations in the U.S. and mismanagement of customer funds. The Department of Justice launched its own investigation into Binance, potentially leading to criminal charges. Binance responded by laying off over 1,500 employees in recent months, raising concerns about its future and the potential for liquidity issues in the crypto market.

In other developments, the SEC continued its efforts to appeal a landmark court ruling that classified Ripple’s XRP as not a security when sold to retail investors on an exchange. House Republicans introduced legislation aimed at preventing the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC), citing concerns about privacy and surveillance. JPMorgan’s U.K. digital bank, Chase UK, announced a ban on crypto-related transactions via debit card or outgoing bank transfers to protect customers from fraud. In Turkey, the founder of the collapsed cryptocurrency exchange Thodex was sentenced to over 11,000 years in prison for fraud, money laundering, and operating a criminal organization.

As we look ahead to October, several key events and factors will shape the crypto market’s trajectory.

Notably, the trial of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried is set to begin, potentially generating negative headlines and further impacting market sentiment.

Regulatory developments, particularly those related to Bitcoin ETF approvals, will remain a focal point for the crypto community. Additionally, Binance’s international situation and its potential impact on market stability will be closely monitored. Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on the economy and U.S. monetary policy, along with the release of the U.S. Labor Department’s September jobs report, could introduce additional volatility into the crypto market.

In summary, the crypto market experienced a period of consolidation and regulatory uncertainty in October 2023. Concerns about the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, ongoing legal battles, and the uncertain future of Binance continue to influence the market’s dynamics.

Given the high volatility and regulatory uncertainties in the crypto space, investors are advised to exercise caution and seek guidance from financial advisors when making investment decisions.

Regulatory changes or notable developments in the crypto space.

Here I would normally just give a summary of events that have caught my attention, but there is so much Machiavellian action I believe you all need to read the full reports and opinions of the writers, but do remember, much of this is coming from main stream press, so remember there are three sides to every story, theirs, yours and the facts, make sure you have all sides before you draw your conclusions.

https://hub.elliptic.co/analysis/the-biggest-crypto-regulatory-changes-in-the-last-decade-and-what-s-to-come/

The big thing here is seizure of Crypto without prosecution, this is the legislation part: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/robust-new-laws-to-fight-corruption-money-laundering-and-fraud

This is the story: https://cryptoslate.com/new-uk-law-grants-authorities-power-to-seize-crypto-without-arrest/

The CBDC story and Lagarde’s slip up that made the ECB have to back peddel. Yahoo Finance same story from Cointelegraph but different take on it, and then Finbold

A late submission is Benzinga article on Tradingview, a short but insightful look, packed with a number of take homes.

As Milton Friedman said in “Tyranny of the Status Quo,” (1984) p. 115 “Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program.” The issue is no one elected the ECB, it is a EU permissioned quango whose bureaucrats have been mandated to dictate law!

Then there is Gary, what can I say that hasn’t already been said or printed about this man, he is either truly inept or pathological liar and puppet of a higher force, he has been found wanting by judges and a judiciary on to many occasions!

Commodities and Forex:

I don’t provide updates in this letter on commodities like oil, gold, and Fiat currencies as these are assets that are affected by market trends and all the above.

Investment Insights:

Market Analysis:

Looking to November in all markets, and highlighting potential opportunities and risks.

November 1^st is FED Wednesday, one of the few months the meeting is the 1st, the pundits are saying a 2% chance of a rate increase, and a 97% no change! What happened to the other 1%!

Well if it goes the 2% way and a 25point increase, I will be on the same stage coach with Warren & Jamie heading out of Dodgy Bank City,

The current rate is 5.25% to 5.5%. and this is why they should be forced to hold that rate but sound a hawkish note with the threat of a further rate increase if things change for the worse.

First, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield has risen sharply over recent weeks. At the Fed’s September 2023 meeting the yield stood at 4.5% and it’s now closer to 4.9%.

The interest payments on those bonds are now more that the US spends on defence, and that is being questioned, why does it cost American citizens $6000 deliver an artillery shell and Russia can do it for $500! Where does the other $5500 go, yes, questions being asked, as well they should!

Should the Fed go with a 25 point increase then you will see carnage in the Markets, there will be a mass exodus as the neutral FED move has been priced in.

As to Bitcoin & Crypto, that is an interesting one, there is the ETF’s and the SEC, that looks to be a battle that the SEC and Gary have lost, it’s just a matter of does Gary want to put he’s head on that block that he would lose his head on.

We have already seen how any ETF news can pump the Bitcoin price, there are demarcates that are starting to question Gary’s actions after the Judge Torres ruling.

If he loses the Coinbase case then he’s toast, and he’s action of aligning himself with Elizabeth Warren and others in congress of her mind will not save him, and the backlash could derail Warrens power grab, and her ability to monetise her targeted station, she has already been exposed for pushing a WSJ article as fact and now shown to be, if not stupid with little understanding of due diligence, just plain dumb.

Her antics remind me of Lizz Truss, the British prime minister that had a shelf life less that a lettuce, and many thought the lettuce would have done better!

Investment Strategies:

If you follow the lead of Warren buffet and Jamie Dimon for a Macro view you need to be in cash ready for the blood on the streets in 2024.

If you’re in it for the micro then I believe Bitcoin will continue to build dominance over Alts until the halving then sell into Eth and chosen others, what these Alt’s will be is not clear yet, and if Eth doesn’t deal with the transaction costs issues it will suffer against its challengers.

Having said that, if in the next 10 to 12 weeks we get the ETF’s and a loss of confidence in the dollar or Euro we could witness some of Crypto’s biggest god candles ever seen and a six figure Bitcoin.

Black Rock and fidelity have already set up there Bitcoin and Eth profits, they are eyeing a 6 to 10 X on what they have, I would imagine Blackrock have a DCA war chest of at least 6 figures of Bitcoin that cost them >$20,000< a coin DCA, that’s $2 billion in Bitcoin (that’s 2.2% of Blackrock’s Market Capitalisation) held ready for the sell to investors, and you can bet they will pump the spot price so they can offer buyers a discount on that market price at the time of purchase to make it look attractive, then in 3 or 4 years’ time the SEC will investigate them and find them guilty of something and fine them a $billion or so, while they made $20 billion or more and Larry walked away with a Billion in bonus, leaving Blackrock with a four figure share price and a Market cap of $200 billion or more.

Featured Asset:

So a long or options on any company offering a Bitcoin or ETH ETF, and a short or options on regional banks would seem a smart move at the moment if your time frame is short. (not scalping)

Financial News:

Global Financial News:

Regulatory Updates:

Again covered most of that in the letter earlier, and as off this moment there is no news on ETF’s only fomo from influencers who all want to claim they called it and conveniently forget when their agenda falls short.

NEWS FLASH

The SEC fined Blackrock $2.5 million on Tuesday, whether it was a slam dunk or not Blackrock don’t pay fines in 2 days, it always has to go through the lawyers! Unless of course it might hinder operations, Blackrock could not announce any new products with an SEC fine hanging about, would not be allowed by the SEC, I see lots of smoke! The article is HERE

In Case You Missed It: