All the information in this letter is not to be considered financial advice; it is the author’s personal views and agreed views of others from their overviews of present markets,
Some of the content will be a summary of articles I have read and believe the author got most or all of it bang on, some will be statistics that have been check for validity, but all will be content I believe is of use or interest to margincall.club members.
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Welcome to the April 2024 edition of the margincall.club FinTech Newsletter.
I will provide you with an overview of key financial events and market developments from the past month (March) and what effect those events could have in April, as always the goal is to help you stay informed and to make your own well-informed decisions.
I will also visit any of the price predictions given in the March 2024 letter to see what played out and what didn’t and why.
Financial Market Highlights:
- Stock Market:
There is still scepticism in markets of reported government figures across the board which is continuing to cause some jitters with traditional markets, but the bullish pendulum seems to be swinging with the buoyant DXY.
Still a “lets prepare for war” vibe in markets at the moment, not good!
March saw the 2 to 3% drop in markets in February recover, that played out with all the major stock markets.
- Economic Indicators:
As I’ve said, beware the hawks of war! The strike’s in the gulf again escalated in March and the coalition responded, which is seeing a lot more ships avoiding the area and taking the long way round, Egypt’s government reported a 30% drop in traffic, but other sources say its more like 64% compared with last year, Egypt generated $5.61 billion in 2020, that is a big loss!
- Cryptocurrency Update:
What I said in the March news letter:
At the start of February I was of the mind that Bitcoin would get very close to >$60k< around the end of the month and it exceeded my expectations, Its hard not to remain bullish on Bitcoin, the ETF outcomes will play out as we move through March.
I still believe the supply shock is yet to hit!
I did say in the Feb letter: “the end of January could see a new all-time high for Bitcoin” that was a typo due to uploading a copy that did not have the full corrected paragraph in, and a number of people picked up on it, it should of read April, around halving date, and history tells us that when the halving hits that rodeo starts!
I now think that will come early, that could form a cup in the long term chart, which could mean a pull back to form the handle.
If it does that it would be a $50k break out to a $120k Bitcoin price in the next move!
I still think there will be a handle, Bitcoin got an all-time high for March, I am expecting an all-time high for the end of April as well, but I do expect a shock pull back to >£60k< just to shake out the weak hands.
- Commodities and Forex:
I don’t provide updates in this letter on commodities like oil, gold, and Fiat currencies as these are assets that are affected by market trends and all the above.
Investment Insights:
- Market Analysis:
I stand by what I said before as this is a macro view, keep one eye on El Salvador and Argentina in the approach to giving more credence to Bitcoin in the day to day use in both countries, though there is news that the new Argentinian President is going back on his word, that’s not good.
Also there is a draught law in the EU banning all self-custody wallets, though I believe that would be challenged in the European court of human rights!
Interesting developments in fiscal digital transfer service in the African sub-continent, there seems to be some support by a number of Governments in the African sub-continent, expect any service looking to promote these services will do well till year end.
- Investment Strategies & Featured Asset:
Nothing has changed here from last month, my Macro view is you want to have a foot in both traditional and crypto markets and you have to look at data miners and companies like Micro strategy, the miners can switch to data storage and Micro Strategy will most probably capitalise some Bitcoin to cover costs of purchase if BTC goes >4X as that would be prudent.
If you see any ATM company looking to use those machines when idle to mine Bitcoin or a company that is using renewables, solar, water and wind to power miners all would be worth doing Due diligence to see if they are investable.
Plus any deals you hear about between Ai and data storage companies would be worth due diligence time.
Financial News:
- Global Financial News:
As started in the previous letters, we have had other parties joining the war in the red sea, so we are going to see the US and other markets suffer that rely on that supply chain route, and that is showing in the markets.
These actions will only see pressure on interest rates across US, Euro and the UK which could see the stock market rise against the predicted down trend, the longer this goes on that catastrophic share fall will be seismic and that cascade collapse of market positions I talked about in previous month will be unlike any seen before.
If events in Ukraine, Gaza and Iran continue to escalate it could still see a chain reaction in events, that would move US markets down.
We have seen more US personal killed in the last few days, and now 3 in an aid convoy, which have yet to see a response, that could be a pivotal action to escalate conflict.
1. **Interest Rate Rises Slow Down – But More Still to Come:**
We got that dovish presentation from the feed, I still hold that June will see a rate cut, should be small at first. Watch the numbers on this, if it’s below 0.25 they don’t feel in control, if its above 0.25 or above they feel in control. (the fed state what data they use google it to educate yourselfs).
As last month
2. **Food Prices will rise in 2024 more than inflation:**
– Global food prices are expected to stay elevated in 2024 due to factors like drought, excessive rain, the war in Ukraine, and Gaza plus high energy costs impacting global farm production.
– The politicians have run out of smoke and the mirrors are broken, western countries that have only experienced single figure inflation are now experiencing inflation in the >20%< range on consumer edible’s, people are seeing those price increases and shrinkflation (the producers art of reducing the amount in a packet and still making look the same!) the only way to reduce that is less tax on the costs of transport and in the supply chain, which means reduction in tax income which inturn means more cow bell!
I would add to this that companies will exploit “Shrinkflation” in products, less product same price strategies!
- Regulatory Updates:
Said this last month and stand by it now after Bitcoins friend Larry Fink said he wants the ETH ETF, he wants that ETH ETF so he can offer zero fee’s ETF’s as he will offer staking and promote ETH as the tool to tokenise traditional finance!
News on ETH ETF’s expected in weeks (maybe May as the ruling says “By May 11th”)
Personal thoughts:
Just holding and waiting for the halving, it will be the match that lights the supply shock!
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James,
With your post, your readers, particularly those beginners who are trying to explore this field won’t leave your page empty-handed.
Nice post! You have written useful and practical information.
Superb and well-thought-out content!